Cal Hates Biden's 2024 Chances
Political pundits cite many different causes for the outcome of a presidential election, often pointing toward specific policies or predictions of voter turnout. I do not doubt that this plays some role, perhaps only in influencing a candidate’s campaign style. However, the reality is the election will come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states. Notably, these voters are not the most politically informed, perhaps not being up to date on the issues and certainly not analyzing policy proposals or a candidate’s past record. Rather, these crucial voters have one thing on their mind, how things are going for them right now. If they are doing well these voters will keep that party or person in power. If not, they will look for an alternative. While this presidential election will be unique in that both candidates have records in the White House to run on, I believe this election will be like all others, a referendum on how the average American is doing in the days leading up to the election. Currently, Biden faces an uphill battle as favorability and approval ratings have him at record lows, even in areas that he has subjectively succeeded in like the economy (best growth and lowest inflation in the Western world) and foreign policy (masterfully handily the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel). Between now and the election Biden must do everything he can to show the American people that they are better off now than they were at any time under Trump. If he can do this, Biden will win reelection in November. I intend to outline some steps Biden can take between now and election day to remind voters what he has done to move this country forward and what he can still do to assure them that he is still up for the task.
It’s the economy stupid.
The old political trope may not be the whole story but it will be a major topic in this coming election. Compared to the rest of the Western world, the US has done a great job balancing growth, unemployment, and inflation. but voters do not look to other countries to see how they should vote. They are affected by the price of things they buy every day and are concerned about keeping their jobs and way of life. Biden must continue to deliver on the economy if he wants any chance at staying in office.
Inflation must reach and stay below 3%
Inflation is a difficult issue to solve economically, but it is even harder to explain politically. A successful resolution to inflation is a simple return to the target rate when looking at year-over-year price increases. This is easy to advertise in economic data reporting, however people notice inflation in their daily lives, beyond a monthly headline in the news. If you are struck by the price of food at the grocery store, it doesn’t feel like things are getting better when the price increases simply slow down. Rather you are still comparing prices to pre-inflationary or pre-pandemic levels and still feel the burden when you leave to store, despite wages largely catching back up with inflation since the pandemic. These prices have sticking power and unfortunately, that sets an unattainable standard for Biden as they will never return to these levels. So the only way to beat this narrative is to keep the inflation numbers low and hope people adjust to the new normal. To maintain this, it may require fewer rate cuts than are currently being priced in. That is ok, the average American is insulated from the effects of interest rates with the exception of mortgage and auto loans. However, if we see even a modest decrease in rates, brokers and car dealers will take over and convince consumers that these are in fact good rates. This will keep more downward pressure on inflation while still offering the feeling of relief in areas the average American notices.
Gas under $4 a gallon
US oil production has never been greater and Russian oil is still finding its way to market despite restrictions. The result of this is sustained low gas prices. Unlike the aforementioned inability for prices to come back down, gas prices are the exception. The current loose oil market should shield the consumer from any potential price shock caused by global geopolitical tension, and help Biden make his argument for managing the economy despite having little influence over price, or supply. If gas prices are able to remain below $4 a gallon nationwide, every gas station in America will serve as a billboard showing that Biden has managed to beat inflation.
Unemployment must remain below 4%
The worst effects of a recession are the job losses. This not only affects the economy as it reduces consumer spending, but more importantly, it has a physiological effect on every worker earning a W2 income. We have seen waves of tech layoffs, albeit largely done from a position of strength, seeking to cut expenses. These have gone concerningly well, as these companies are becoming increasingly profitable and seemingly unaffected by the lower staffing levels. It is imperative that this remains focused on the tech center as larger waves of layoffs throughout the broader economy could make it much harder to find a job and wear down the strong economic foundation Biden has built.
The stock market needs to grow in 2024
Finally, we must see stock market growth this year. It doesn’t have to be anything incredible, just modest expected growth. Seeing declines in 401Ks does not inspire confidence in the economic direction of the country and may have voters looking towards the businessman President Trump, who used to and continues to talk about his economic record no matter what the actual results were. There are issues out there that need to be addressed with fiscal policy, the growing debt load stands out as the most obvious, however, these can’t be addressed without some pain. While it would be unlikely he could pass any legislation in the current congress it is best he holds off on even suggesting some of these methods to decrease the deficit until he is comfortably sitting in the Oval Office as a lame duck president. Then we can allow the market to react to a necessary call for tax increases or spending cuts.
The Elder Statesman
Some of the greatest outcomes of the Biden presidency have been bipartisan legislative achievements that are a direct result of Biden's decades of experience in the Senate. While the Republican house is in deadlock, I do not expect much in terms of legislation between now and the election. However, that should not prevent Biden from touting his prior accomplishments and flanking Republicans at the border.
Inflation Reduction Act
In the media, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is only known for being poorly named. In reality, this piece of legislation singlehandedly did more to curb the effects of climate change than anything else in recent history. A Biden victory will rely on young voters, many of whom list climate change as their number one issue. He needs to remind them that he put in the work to pass this legislation, while Trump spent his time in office undoing progress on climate in every way he could from his rants on wind turbines to pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement. Biden must remind the base that he is the candidate protecting the climate and has done more than anyone else in power to make that happen. Biden must show up to events made possible by this legislation and saturate the news space with this bill’s successes. The added bonus of the IRA is the massive investments in green oil and gas developments, whether that be hydrogen hubs or carbon capture, these technologies will be deployed in red states and Biden can go there and show that he is for all the people not just those who are likely to vote for him.
CHIPS Act
I don’t know if Chris Miller’s publication of Chip War prompted the national conversation on semiconductors or if he simply had luck on his side, either way, the intricacies, and supply chain constraints of semiconductors quickly made their way into everyday conversations. This phenomenon peaked with the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act, effectively providing massive incentives to manufacture semiconductors domestically. This bipartisan bill may well have passed on its own but will become a part of Biden’s legacy. He should do all he can to remind the American people of this bill’s success, attending openings of new factories and standing alongside the Republican legislatures that passed this bill together. This is yet another reminder that Democrats are in Washington to govern, and not simply for theatre.
Close the border
Biden and the Senate have a Border compromise. It seems less likely each day that this will ever become law as it is facing resistance in the House, largely fueled by Biden’s 2024 rival. Sometimes, however, you don’t need to actually pass legislation to own an issue, look at Republicans in their constant attempts to overturn Obamacare. Biden can take this same avenue, however with a little twist, and actually present a plan, something Republicans failed to do for over a decade. Importantly, Biden must go to the border with this bipartisan plan in hand. This will show he personally is willing to accept there is a problem at the border, but also advocate for a more humane solution than simply ending asylum in all forms and shutting the border down via barbaric means. I don’t want to go too deep into the border and immigration issue here. But I will rely on the reporting that says this is the most conservative border legislation we have seen in a generation. Biden must go to the border with his plan, and stay there until Republicans either support the bill or are forced to publicly shy away from addressing their keystone issue while Biden takes executive actions on his own.
A president coming to town does not go unnoticed. Even if he is there for a small area of local interest it gives the appearance of results. Biden must take advantage of all the legislation that he has worked to pass and tour the country highlighting the impact those bills have on the American people. If he can do this enough, it will have an impact and show people that we are on the right track. While it is hard to quantify, there is a national impact of seeing the president all across the country celebrating successes. This should not be left to the few swing states, he can and must do this across the entire country.
A world in Disarray
During Biden’s term, the world has seen the start of two major conflicts. While neither has anything to do with American actions, they add to the general feeling of uncertainty. Biden can reverse this by bringing one of these conflicts to an end.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only put the idea of a nation’s sovereignty in question, but it has killed hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians. After the lackluster Ukrainian counter-offensive the lines have stayed largely the same as each side digs in. Assuming Ukraine can maintain Western financial support (not a certainty) Ukraine should be able to maintain these positions but will not be able to push back the Russian military. Putin, on the other hand, has enough resources to continue the war as long as he wishes. His goal remains the complete elimination of Ukraine as a nation and knows a Donald Trump Victory will make that a possibility, thus it is unlikely Putin will credibly approach the negotiating table before he knows the results of the US election.
This leaves Israel. Biden’s immediate support for Israel in the wake of the Hamas terror attack and his administration’s efforts to negotiate hostage release deals has given him immense credibility in the country. Biden must use this advantage to work on ending the violence before the situation worsens. It is clear now, that the only solution is a two state solution and the biggest opponent to that is the current, and extremely unpopular Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden must appeal directly to the Israelis, convince them to kick Bibi out of power, and elect a new coalition that will actually work towards a two state solution. Hamas gains power in Gaza with every bomb that is dropped, and while it is important to go after those who attacked Israel, it is also important to show restraint and learn from the US mistakes in the Middle East. US intervention will be necessary in any long term peace deal, as Israeli occupation of Gaza is off the table. Biden must take action now before things continue to escalate, convince the Israelis to get rid of Bibi, and sign off on a peace deal this year. While this won’t solve the issue a lasting cease fire will act as a sign of progress, giving Biden credibility at home and bringing American supporters of Palestine back to the Democratic base.
Additionally, Biden needs to take a strong stance on one of the few remaining bipartisan issues, China, and have some show of force in support of Taiwan. While anything directly related to the island is too incendiary, actions with allies with a clear audience of China will show strength under Biden's leadership. Large exercises with Pacific allies specifically practicing the defeat of a naval blockade, would show our strength internationally and assure Americans domestically that we are not operating in this world alone. Biden must differentiate himself through his ability to maintain and foster alliances so he can credibly maintain America’s peacekeeping role in the world while proving American taxpayers are not fronting the entire cost.
Foreign policy rarely does any candidate any favors in national elections. However, the growing tension in the Middle East in the last few months has reminded Americans of our global involvement. To some, this is seen as a waste of resources, however, if Biden can show the positive outcomes of American involvement, namely through an Israel deal, Biden may get the credit he deserves from the average voter.
A bonus
Beat Impeachment
Impeachments, ironically can be a great catalyst for presidential approval ratings. This was the case for Trump during his first impeachment and Clinton during his impeachment in the 90s. For Biden, a failure to convict or rather even a failure to impeach in the House could be just what he needs to reverse the trend in his approval ratings. When the “Biden Crime Family” is revealed to be nothing but a fabrication on the national stage, Biden’s approval ratings are bound to increase. While the House has formalized an impeachment inquiry, revealing their findings would show the massive contrast between Trump and Biden. This exposure may be too politically risky for Republicans and may never see the light of day, but as we have seen, Trump has massive influence over the House and may not want to enter November being the only candidate to have been impeached. Either way, more talk of impeachment is bound to help Biden.
I am not immune to the very apparent criticisms of Joe Biden, I hear the uneasiness with electing him for another 4 years, even from those who think he has done a great job while serving. I also see the negative outlook many still hold. These factors will make this a difficult election for Joe Biden. However, there is still plenty of time to buck this trend and change people's outlook. If Biden is able to do these things I have laid out, I think we will enter November with a different mindset, looking back on a successful 4 years and an American electorate that for the first time in a long time feels good about the future.
February 9th 2024